What is the chance
Piet is away, so I'll try
(q = 0.01542; m = 26)
Chance to get two random c.4 items in the certain level: p = q^2 = 2.4*10^(-4) = about 1 in 4200. It's 6 times less than c.5 chance, but 5 times more than c.6 chance.
Chance to get two identical c.4 items in the certain level: p = q^2/m = 9*10^(-6) = about 1 in 110000. It's 5 times less than c.6 chance
Chance to get two certain identical c.4 items in the certain level: p = q^2/m^2 = 3.5*10^(-7) = about 1 in 2843000. It's 32 times less than chance to get certain c.6 item.
Chances to get items while holding
( P = 1-(1-p)^n ):Two random c.4's: 50 levels - P = 1.2%; 100 levels - P = 2.35%.
Two identical c.4's: 50 levels - P = 0.045%; 100 levels - P = 0.09%.
So, such situation happens in one of few thousands games with
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