Forum > Tuber's secrets > thread

As I work on unblocking items in my Fridge, I have been thinking a bit about the chances of finding a specific item. I'm creating this thread partly for clarification, partly to satisfy my own obsession, and partly as public service. I did consider putting this in the Ask Questions thread, but the topic seems a bit intricate and would quickly get lost in the 200+ pages of material.

First off, for those who don't want to dig it up:

coeff. 1: 52.323% - about 1 in 2 items
coeff. 2: 34.085% - about 1 in 3
coeff. 3: 11.999% - about 1 in 8
coeff. 4: 01.542% - about 1 in 65
coeff. 5: 0.1400% - about 1 in 700
coeff. 6: 0.0045% - about 1 in 22,000
Now, my primary question is, do these numbers represent the chance of finding an item of the specific coefficient in a given level or the chance of an individual item in the level being that coefficient? I assume the latter, meaning there's about a 1 in 700 chance of your effect item being Coefficient 5 and a 1 in 700 chance of your point item being Coefficient 5. That gives closer to a 1 in 350 chance of finding any Coefficient 5 in any given level (an important statistic since so many of us keep track of how many total Coefficient 5s we have, regardless of which they are).

My second question is, do the percentages change as more families become available? For example, Good-looking Harry's delights includes five Coefficient 1 items and one Coefficient 2 item. After completing Divine Sweets, does your chance of seeing a Coefficient 1 become greater than it was before because there are more available? My hope would be that it doesn't, but I haven't tracked my collection of Coefficient 1 and 2 items so I can't be sure.

Now here's the fun part. Assuming the math is as stated in the quote above and assuming that math doesn't change as more items become available, the chance of finding a specific item would be the named percentage divided by the total number of items available. For example, if every item is available, the chance of finding Tuber's Bag would be .14% (chance of finding a Coefficient 5) divided by 8 (number of Coefficient 5 effect items), or .0175% (about 1 in 5715). For the Candy Cane, the chance would be 1.542% divided by 26, or .059% (about 1 in 1695). The chance of seeing a Wine Key would be 11.999% divided by 55, or .2181% (about 1 in 459).

At that rate, if you average 120 levels that have items per game, you'd see one of a specific Coefficient 3 every 4 games and unblock it in 40. A specific Coefficient 4 would be seen every 14 games. And a specific Coefficient 5 would show up once in every 47.5 games.

Obviously those numbers will be more or less depending on how the randomness is treating you(we all know you can see the same Coefficient 3 three times in one game and then not see another one for a couple months) but I think think the math is reasonable. Does this this sound right to you? Is there anything I'm overlooking?

Brilliant. The only thing I'd change would be the level average, it seems pretty generous to me, but hell, how can you tell? If there are any math errors, you'll have to find that out from someone else because it's 1:15 AM here and I've never been fond of even checking my own answers.

Good work nonetheless! Good luck with life, and the game, and whatnot.

Regardless of what math you use, the game doesn't use the same . It uses randomness. I have played for maybe 2 years now and I have only 2 Almond Laxatives. I found them in 2 games in a row and I haven't seen any for 6-12 months... I don't even remember how long it's been. I have 9 Evil Liquors and JoeKickAss was trying to get his second for months... I have had 3 Coef.5 in 1 game. Twice. And I have like... 27-28 I don't remember how many they are any more .

Taking a glance at my items I see that I have like twice the numbers of Effect C5 than Points C5. And don't forget the ... so maybe the math is not exactly correct. Maybe you don't have some % change to get C5 item and after that one of the items to be chosen randomly, but more like DinoRPG level-up style of randomness. You have that WHOLE grid of items and one of them is chosen while the higher Coef items have less chance... I don't know... I don't care . Play for fun

First of all: I don't think that the Coefficient numbers are given by the programmers. I think they are guesses that gamers make to find classes of how rare an item is. So not all have the same chance to appear, i think we all know that candy cane is a very rare Co4 item, but still more often then every Co5 (in average).

To your questions: The percentage don't mean specific items it means the complete class. It is the chace to get one item of that classe. So the chance to get the last missing Co4 item is much smaller then the chance to get an Co4 item (that should be logical ). That should clear the second question: Of course it change the chances for items, if you open new classe (most ppl get the BoS and BoM at the beginning because there are not many items you have unblocked and espacialy not many Co5, but if you don't get it at the start you can wait years for it like me and my BoS or pkness and his BoM). But the chances for the Coefficient classes stays very much the same (but not exactly i guess).

Also important is was zax says, espacialy for really rare items like Co5 and Co6. In average you will have all Co6 items around 10 if you have one on 10, and if you reach that point you have alle Co5 relative close together (-/+ 50 Co5 items will be "around the same number" if you have 10 of every Co6).

But one thing is often forgotten (and it's part of my "you often get one item in a row"-theory): There is no possibility to programm an randomizer for a computer! It's just not possible. All randomizers for computers are so called "pseudo randomizer" and are normally based on the time. So what item you get will change every millisecond (if you block somehow your pc clock you should always the get same item). It is a complicated scientific calculation that has the idea that in average every time part every number is computed as often as every other number (let's say in 1 minute the calculation of milliseconds to a number of 1-100 will calculate the 5 around the same often as the 67). So if you really want to know how the items for Hammerfest are calculated you have to take a look inte the programm code of this randomizer.

(Hope that's not too much text to bore you to death )

It uses randomness. I have played for maybe 2 years now and I have only 2 Almond Laxatives. I found them in 2 games in a row and I haven't seen any for 6-12 months... I don't even remember how long it's been. I have 9 Evil Liquors and JoeKickAss was trying to get his second for months...
I think you may have slept through a couple of your Statistics classes. If the game determines that you will see a Coefficient 5 point item, there is an equal chance that any one of them could should up. Your next Coefficient 5 point item could just as easily be a 10th Evil Liquor as it could be a third Almond Laxative. The number you've already seen has no bearing on which one you will see next. The common analogy is coin-flipping. If you flip a coin you have a 50% chance of hitting tails. If you flip a coin nine times and hit tails nine times, your chance of hitting tails when you flip it a 10th time is still 50%. Similarly, assuming the initial Coefficient math is correct, if you see a Coefficient 5 item in one level, you still have a .14% chance of seeing one on the next level. The game may be random, but it's entirely based in simple statistics.

Plus, all things equal (which they almost certainly aren't) and if you play enough games it'll all average out anyway!

Actually, as stated above, the candy cane is PROBABLY rarer than other items considered CO4, so it's possible the almond laxative is also.

Tell that to the guy that has it unblocked .