Forum > Tuber's secrets > thread

I'm sure lots of people want the most accurate possible possible outcomes for item coefficient appearance. I've decided that instead of relying on the info given in the FAQ, I want to create my own data table. I can't possibly do it alone though... I need the help of my fellow hammerfestians to collect data.

Since I imagine counting how many items of this and that coefficient must be a real drag and will probably hinder progress, I won't ask you to do so on the english server but on the french and or spanish servers instead.

If you want to help me collect data, from start to finish in a game tally how many items of each coefficient you obtain. For example, A game I just played on the french server (Terrible game... ended in pd 13):

coeff 1:21
coeff 2:7
coeff 3:4
coeff 4:0
coeff 5:0
coeff 6:0

You may notice the numbers add up a bit short (if you know I want in the carrotian council and Irish coffee), and that's because I got caught up in the game a couple times and forgot to record the info. If this happens, don't worry about it, but don't make something up or try to remember. Just leave it.

Once I get data from 20 games and every 10 after that, I will update the current percentage possibilities according to the data. Keep in mind it is likely that coeff 5 and 6 items will be at 0% for a while.

Please do not use this thread to tell me you just got a coeff 5 or 6 item, that is incomplete data and by itself will not help contribute to overall possibility. Likewise, don't tell me all the items you have in your fridge. Those are items you have collected, not seen. It is essential that data that is collected is taken directly from the game as it is being played.

Thanks so much, I hope you participate!

Current Status (4,250 items in data):
Coeff 1: 55.552941176470588235294117647059%
Coeff 2: 33.082352941176470588235294117647%
Coeff 3: 10.047058823529411764705882352941%
Coeff 4: 1.1058823529411764705882352941176%
Coeff 5: 0.18823529411764705882352941176471%
Coeff 6: 0.00023529411764705882352941176470588%

This website made by Vanilleon (THANK YOU!!!) is a great tool for counting up items' coeffs as you go along.
www.true-magic.com/games/hfest/counter.php

USE IT!

Also, something just occurred to me. You could record your games with hypercam, and count items afterwards.

While I support your endeavour (and appreciate the value of the scientific process), I must ask why this data collection is necessary. We already have all the percentages listed in the FAQ thread; are those numbers derived from data, or are they straight from the game's source code ? Because if the numbers we already have are exact, then no matter how much data you collect, you're just going to keep getting closer and closer, approaching those percentages. The more data you have, the more accurate your ratios will be; but nothing can ever be more accurate than the exact ratios used by the program itself (if that is in fact where the current ratios have come from) !

It seems like a moot point to me, anyway; I don't care how accurate the estimates are, because in the end, the games I have personally played will probably display a completely different set of numbers.

Also, practically, this will be difficult, since nobody can edit their posts but you.

A more productive experiment, perhaps, would be to compare the rarity of items *within* each coefficient. For instance, everyone says the Candy Cane is less common than all the other coeff.4 items. How is this possible, if there is one percentage for the whole group ? Is this theory true, and if so, are there other items that exemplify the same principle ? Perhaps no two items have the same probability after all, and the game is truly founded on a lengthy hierarchy of numbers, one item after another. It's possible.

Just trying to be constructive.

The data on the FAQ was collected on the french server. And I don't think that certain items appear more often within each coefficient... to me that's completely ridiculous, even though it happens it is in the end coincidence.

-sigh-

I suppose I knew no one would go to the trouble to actually help me. Too much trouble. might as weel close this.

I'm gonna kick you

after the trouble of getting all the info??? anyway...

Coef. 1: 32

Coef. 2: 25

Coef. 3: 23

Coef. 4: 1

Coef. 5:

Coef. 6:

**Refused to Get**: [2x], [2x], [2x], , , , ,

**Couldn't Get**: , , , [2x], ,

Total Items: 99

Overall Score: 1.313.355

Level Reached: 58

Should've read the forum before started playing

Paozits

Thanks so much for that, and I suppose I deserve to be kicked. asking anyone to go to such trouble was stupid. x_x

Good luck!

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54.12.1.9.3.13:
54.12.1.9.3.15:

Interesting idea! The odds of 1 in 22,000 for coef. 6 do seem a bit staggering; I wonder if that's really accurate. They're certainly rare, but I've already seen at least three in less than five months of playing.

My results for today:

Coef. 1: 75
Coef. 2: 46
Coef. 3: 16
Coef. 4: 1
Coef. 5: 0
Coef. 6: 0

(Unusually short game. Igor died on the spikes by the portal at the end of PD51.)

I wonder if it would be just about as good to track only coef. 4, 5 and 6 items and compare those numbers to the number of item-giving levels you visit. It should be pretty easy if you include the PDs you visit and subtract boss rooms and other item-less levels. (So this time, for example, I could say that I spotted one coef. 4 item in 74 levels.) It might not be as strictly accurate as your idea of listing every item you see and comparing those totals, but a ratio of rare-ish items to number of levels visited seems like it could also be interesting and useful.

Um... it would certainly be much easier, anyway. I don't know if I could keep tracking every single item I see long enough to gather a useful amount of data. (Especially since the distraction seems to result in poor Igor's death rather often.)

Let me know what you think. Either way, I'll help out when I can!

On the contrary ... it is not stupid, Neko, but valiant.

I was assuming the numbers we already had were official. But if not, then this could certainly be a noble cause. If people are willing to help out, I don't see why not.

I will lend a hand when I can, but I am in college now and so don't have as much free time as I would like to ...

Neko, are you willing to be in charge of keeping a running total ?

The numbers we have are from a HUGE collection like this on the french server. So why not try it ourselves? xD I'll try to help.

I have recordings of three older games - one of them with coeff 6. Shall I use these three? The recordings are just the ones I played until death and not until rage quit, so they are somehow reliable... Neky, you decide

I just see... we won't get really exact numbers too Because not everyone of us has completed every quest, so some of the items can't appear yet^^